Coronavirus Cases may End within a Month

A new data model has predicted that new confirmed cases affected by the Wuhan-originated Coronavirus outbreak are near to end in China. A group of scientists has recently launched a website that provides up to date data regarding the incidence of Coronavirus-related infections.

This publicly available data suggests that the number of people infected with this new Chinese-flu like virus (Coronavirus) has much declined over the last two weeks.

The novel Coronavirus outbreak has infected quite a number of people since its emergence in the last days of December 2019. Whereas the majority of the cases of this illness were reported in China, where its presence was reported for the first time.

During the last month, an increase in the newly confirmed cases of Coronavirus infection was observed almost on a daily basis. But this disease trend has changed during the last two weeks.

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Dr. Yi Zou, Ph.D., is working as a lecturer at Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, in its Department of Health and Environmental Sciences. He states that the current data model on Coronavirus cases presumes that by the next week there will be a rapid reduction in the number of patients newly affected by this deadly Coronavirus.

Whereas, the incidence of such cases is expected to become virtually zero by February 23, 2020. Though this data model suggests a decrease in the incidence of this deadly Coronavirus infection, still some factors should be kept in mind that may alter this prediction. These factors may include under-reporting of the recent Coronavirus infected patients.

This new and publicly available data model provides a hope to prevent the spread of this deadly illness in the near future. The analysis of the collected data has shown that a classic sigmoid function curve (S-shaped) is present in the case of Coronavirus disease pattern.

The top of this stretched S-shaped curve tells about the maximum number of infected patients. The availability of such data makes the public aware of the situation.

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This newly developed website is a result of the collaboration between researchers from two universities in China. Among these researchers, one belonged to the Southern University of Science and Technology and three were from Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University. The website will be continuously updated and maintained to keep the public well-informed regarding the latest prediction.

The researchers, journalists, and scientists may access data regarding the novel coronavirus outbreak and its daily statistical modeling through this website.

Johannes Knops, Ph.D. is working at the Jiaotong-Liverpool University. He is a Professor and HOD of its Department of Health and Environmental Sciences. According to him, throughout the world, this is the only open-access website that provides data about novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV).

The on-time reporting of this Coronavirus outbreak in China and the dissemination of all the information regarding it may help health authorities in making appropriate decisions to prevent or treat this infectious disease.

Dr. Zou stated that this website acts as a tool for people throughout the world, facilitating them in controlling this Coronavirus epidemic.


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